2017年份波尔多期酒销售开始,别冲动买

 文:陆江 | 葡萄酒在线

一年一度的波尔多期酒售卖已经开始,现在售卖的是2017年份的波尔多名庄酒,周围有些“冲动”的朋友想跃跃欲试。

特别要提醒你们,先想想,自己为什么要买波尔多期酒(2年后才能交付现货!)。

如果是其他需求,譬如装Bigger或是特别需求,那就买了没问题;可如果为了投资增值,那就死了这条心吧!

波尔多期酒早就不适合投资,看一下Live-ex统计的最近12个年份期酒的市场回报率(描蓝色部分)。

图表来源自Liv-ex

【表格中:

“1”指的是发布两年后的Liv-ex中间价格(就是最早可以拿到现货时的市场价格)。

“2”指的是截至2018年1月31日的Liv-ex中间价格。

“3”指的回报率是相比酒商的发布价来计算。】

期酒购买后两年,可以拿到现货时,有合适回报率的只有2005和2008年份,看着还像样点,不过特别注意2008年份期酒价在2009年上半年发布,正值2008年底美国金融危机爆发后的恐慌出价,很低 (陆江撰文)。

此后仅有2014年份的15%就算是相当出色的涨幅,可2年的回报15%,还没算上交易套现的成本(一般是5-20%)。也就是说连银行理财的普通回报还跟不上,而且还需要花时间精力以及承担2年的市场风险(汇率,市场需求等)。

除了这3个年份,其它大部分年份是亏损或是很低回报。

2017年份期酒出价因为去年春天的大规模霜冻,让波尔多也受影响,遭受减产,当然从现在看,品质还不错,所以今年价格大概率不会有明显下调,现在现货波尔多葡萄酒市场价格大部分品种都算合理,真不如买点现货年份,直接可以享用,也不承受很多风险。

葡萄酒现阶段还是享乐为好,投资还是找自己熟悉的领域,再不济,银行理财收益也基本大概率地超过期酒。

 

 

陆江(Maxime LU)

– 曾为Decanter亚洲葡萄酒大赛(Decanter Asia Wine Awards),意大利南部葡萄酒大赛(Puglia)、葡萄牙葡萄酒挑战大赛-Wines of Portugal Challenge(Lisboa)等国际国内葡萄酒大赛专家评委;美食美酒旅游类撰稿人,《葡萄酒在线》专栏撰稿人、《Decanter中文版-醇鉴中国》撰稿人,葡萄酒行业咨询顾问,万欧兰葡萄酒教育首席讲师,资深葡萄酒收藏顾问。

Food and wine pairing in China: Technicalities ruin the fun

By  Maxime LU/ 陆江
7 February 2018

(Published on Decanter China, the Chinese version of Decanter)

Food and wine pairing ‘helps but won’t drastically boost wine sales’ in China, despite the enormous number of wine and dine events being held in the country, said Chinese trade professionals

Distributors: Pairings don’t boost sales

There is no clear sign that the widespread media coverage and many events on food and wine pairing in China have directly helped wine sales, according to several importers and distributors.

‘Most of our customers drink wine for business occasions,’ said Christian Zhang, chief sommelier of Noah’s Yacht Club in Shanghai. ‘They still only have very basic knowledge about wine and pairing. The concept of wine pairing helps, but won’t make a huge difference in sales.’

At retail stores, ‘we are rarely asked about food pairing options by our customers,’ said YANG Zuyan, fine wine and projects manager of Pudao Wines.

‘To properly pair food with wine, you need a certain level of wine knowledge. While media and trade professionals are interested in the concept, their buying power is limited. Real consumers, however, don’t have [the] knowledge to be influenced by the concept,’ said Yang.

‘To make a sale, it’s key for us to demonstrate scenarios in which consumers can picture themselves drinking wine,’ said WANG Xiaoshan, Market Director of Joyvio, a wine importer owned by Legend Holdings, which also owns Lenovo.

‘If we start lecturing them on what wine they should choose if they’re going to eat a certain dish, things get too complicated and they won’t remember anyway,’ Wang said.

‘[Food and wine pairing] is additional information for consumers, and may help them to picture themselves enjoying the wine with food, but that’s about it,’ said Ma Tao, general manager of B2B wine distributer Wajiu.com.

‘For the general public, fine wine and dining is still considered as something enjoyed only by the white-collar elites, despite the heavy media coverage on the subject. In most cases, people still drink wines for quaffing and “Ganbei (bottoms up)” in China.’

Meanwhile, the concept of food and wine pairing as a branding and communication tool is considered important by producers and regional bodies, which stress that localised and less ‘textbook’ pairings tend to work better in China.

Producers: Non-textbook communication is the key

‘We wouldn’t rely on food and wine pairing events to push sales,’ said WU Xiaoxia, head of marketing in Changyu, the biggest wine producing company in China.

‘Culturally speaking, the majority of Chinese consumers care more about who they drink with and what the occasion is, so they pay less attention to what they drink. Plus, they usually have a variety of dishes laid out on the table at once, so the textbook course-based rules of Western wine pairing won’t work here,’ Wu said.

‘The key is to focus the pairing around Chinese food,’ said CHEN Lizhong, owner of Xinjiang-based boutique winery Tiansai.

‘We used the concept of Chinese food and wine pairing to promote our rosé, dry white and an easy-drinking red wine range, and we saw some growth in sales.’

The experimental and ‘fun’ elements of pairing are ideal to ‘bring Chinese consumers closer to wine’, especially during wine-themed dinners featuring local dishes, said YIN Kai, president of Castel China.

Food and wine pairing is an ‘important method’ for promoting Australian wines in China, agreed Willa Yang, Wine Australia’s head of market for China.

However, instead of teaching consumers about pairing roles, the regional body focuses more on helping Chinese consumers to ‘form the habit’ of having wines with food, Yang added.

‘Technicalities would ruin the fun and enjoyment of wine drinking,’ said Judy Chan, owner of Grace Vineyard.

‘However, when you start to recognise the basic principles of food and wine pairing, you will be better informed when choosing a bottle to buy, and naturally find more enjoyment in the pairing experiments.’

Food and wine: The ideal occasions

High-end restaurants that serve Western or Japanese food, as well as the more ‘westernised’ modern Chinese food restaurants, tend to naturally fit the concept or food and wine pairing, said professionals.

Fine wine and dining experiences are still important for promoting premium wines, said Ma Tao of Wajiu.com.

‘”Wine by the glass” and special pairing menus are welcomed by our customers,’ said Christian Zhang of Noah’s Yacht Club. ‘Wine region-themed promotions, such as ‘Rioja and restaurant week’, also help us to sell,’ he added.

Major events hosted in hotels, such as weddings, are also opportunities to promote wine via food pairings, said Wang Xiaoshan of Joyvio.

‘The guests tend to pay more attention to the choice of wine and food for the occasion, because they demonstrate the taste of the host.’

 

(Editing by Chris Mercer)

Translated by Sylvia Wu

Exclusive – Hit Chinese reality show music director: My life as a wine enthusiast

By Maxime Lu / 陆江

(Published on DecanterChina.COM,  Chinese version of Decanter.)

The mega hit reality TV show ‘I am a Singer 我是歌手’ needs little introduction to the Chinese audience. Ever since its first season in 2013 one of the top producers in Greater China, Kubert Leung, has been the music director for this highly popular show.The musician, who came from Hong Kong, is known to the Chinese audience as a talented, gentle and elegant producer in the world of music (as well as for being a low-key workaholic who never leaves his studio). Few, however, would have imagined that the musician is also a serious wine enthusiast in his personal life.This month Decanter speaks exclusively to the award-winning music producer. Read all about Kubert Leung’s life as a wine lover.

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Image credit Kubert Leung

Q: How did you fall in love with wine? Which are your favourite wine regions at the moment?

Kubert Leung: When I was studying in New York many years ago, there was a big wine shop near my house. I would go there to buy some wines. These were my first experience with wines, mainly produced in the US, though I wasn’t really drawn to wine just yet.Fortunately, I had a Chinese friend whose uncle worked for a high-end local restaurant. From time to time he would bring unfinished wines from the diners, and I would get to try them whenever I visited their house. ‘What good wines do you have this time?’ was always my first line at the door. These wines gave me access to many of the most famous and interesting wine regions and producers outside the US.When I went back to Hong Kong in 1997, I grew a habit of drinking whiskeys, as they were easier to store, and I could take my time to finish them. At that time, we didn’t have many wines to choose from, until Hong Kong abolished its tariffs on wine.From five years ago, I started to visit Mainland China frequently and now I’m based in Beijing. Here I met a group of enthusiasts who share my passion for wine, and my interest in wine grew stronger.What I drink the most at the moment are wines from Burgundy and Italy. I’m fascinated by the finesse and elegance of Burgundy, as well as the versatile characters of Italian wines.

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Image credit Kubert Leung

 

Q: Who is in your ‘wine circle’? Tell us a little bit about your wine gatherings in Beijing.

Kubert Leung: My wine friends come from various professions; some are from the music and movie industries, or in finance and media, while others are wine merchants and wine critics. It’s a fun gang of interesting personalities, though we are from very different backgrounds.Our ‘headquarters’ is always Beijing. We try to meet once or twice a month, even when we’re busy with our day jobs. We would pick a theme every time, and each would bring a bottle to share and talk about with others.We even spend festivals and celebrations together—the year before last a few of us met up for Valentine’s day. I brought a bottle of Clos de Vougeot Grand Crus, while my friends brought wines including limited edition Champagne and icewine from Canada. We had lots of fun (though not romantically) by sharing good food, wines and interesting topics.

 

Q: As an artist who loves wine a lot, how would you balance work and drinking?

Kubert Leung: I would drink a little bit to get into a more creative state. But drinking for fun is a different matter, and I’d rather keep them separate—honestly, drinking too much will bring nothing but a negative influence to work.We would only drink abundantly to celebrate after the end of a show. My team came from around the world, and the Australians and Canadians would bring wines from their home countries to share with everyone. When I travel to Changsha for a show I would bring my own wine or sometimes, whiskey.

l2

 

Image credit Kubert Leung

Q: Has your love in wine brought any changes to your life?

Kubert Leung: I have learnt to enjoy life more and discover the small and beautiful things in life—this is an attitude associated with the wine culture.I also try to visit more wine-producing regions when I travel. A while ago I was invited to Sweden as a commentator for the 2016 Eurovision Song Contest. I decided to drive all the way to Rome and Florence and visited a few wineries.On my way I was the most impressed by an almost mythical Vin Santo from a famous winery in Tuscany. The wine was so rich and sweet; I heard that it was matured for 10 years, during which 2/3 of the wine was lost—imagine how precious and delicious it was. They (the winery) would use the fat brandy glasses to swirl the wines around, releasing the luscious aromas of the wine. That was a very interesting experience.I also loved visiting the ancient castles of these wineries—you would hardly meet any tourists there. These old chateaux at nights are so mysterious and somewhat spooky—maybe I’ve watched too many horror movies.

 

Q: For leisure, which wine region would you visit next?

Kubert Leung: I would love to visit Burgundy, a region I have admired for so long. I am in fact looking up information about chateaux visits in Burgundy right now.I would go to the regions where my favourite wines were produced, to feel the local culture and environment for myself. The experience of visiting chateaux and communicating with winemakers always fascinates me. But I would prefer a spontaneous holiday— I’d choose not to plan every detail before I set off for a trip.

 

Q: In the Chinese music circle, what beverages are trending right now?

Kubert Leung: When I first came to work in the Mainland, Chinese Baijiu and expensive top cru classes from France, such as Lafite and Petrus, were the most popular.Whiskeys were the next to become popular, especially single malt whiskies. These can be very characterful and they satisfy different preferences, but they’re increasingly expensive nowadays—especially those Japanese whiskeys, which are the most fashionable right now.Although in the music circle people mainly drink whiskeys at the moment, there are a few wine lovers as well. Like me, they found their favourites when exploring wines from various regions and styles — eventually falling in love with wine.

 

Q: Finally, what is your wine dream?

Kubert Leung: My dream is to try more good wines, and visit as many wine regions around the world as possible with my fellow wine enthusiasts.

 

Translated by Sylvia Wu / 吴嘉溦

 

Maxime Lu / 陆江

-The founder and Chief wine editor of WineOnline.CN since 2005
-The founder and Chief wine educator of  WineSchool.CN since 2006
-The founder and main contributor for WineBlogChina.COM since 2011
-Wine Judge for international wine competitions: Decanter Asia Wine Awards 2015(Hongkong) , Wines of Portugal Challenge 2014(Lisbon) , Radici del Sud 2013 ( Puglia ) ,and some domestic wine competitions.
-A contributor for Decanter China(Chinese version of Decanter.com),Prowine China(Prowein branch) and for main stream media on fashion, finance , food and wine.
-The consultant of  Wine Collection.
-The consultant of wine companies.

京东:中国葡萄酒电商的发展现状(规模与模式篇)

作者: 陆江 (Maxime LU)

(本文已发表于Decanter中文版-醇鉴中国,转载请标明出处和署名)

 近年来中国的葡萄酒市场变化巨大,在线零售业对中国人消费习惯的改变直接反映到了葡萄酒行业,葡萄酒电商成为葡萄酒销售的重要渠道之一,也是增长最快的渠道之一。

DecanterChina.com撰稿人陆江,独家专访中国最大的电商之一京东(JD.COM)的葡萄酒业务负责人赵大彬,听他详细介绍京东葡萄酒业务的发展现状以及面临的挑战。

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图片:京东集团葡萄酒部门负责人赵大彬(右下)与京东董事长及CEO刘强东(右上)与澳大利亚富邑集团(Treasury Wine Estates)签署合作协议。

销售模式和规模

京东开展葡萄酒业务始于2010年底。葡萄酒业务负责人赵大彬介绍说,京东的葡萄酒业务分两种模式:一个是自营模式,也就是从进口商或国外直接采购,加一部分利润卖出去;另一个是平台模式,即招一些商家开店,以他们自主经营为主,类似“购物中心(shopping mall)”。

葡萄酒自营和平台渠道(销售额)相加,目前约占京东各类酒种的四分之一。2016年,京东预计在酒类产品取得105亿总销售额。赵大彬介绍道,无论自营还是平台,“中国白酒还是占到主导”。

2015年,京东葡萄酒自营部分销售额超过人民币4亿元,2016年预计达到12亿,平台部分则预计达到15亿左右,“是2015年的3倍”。不过这个预计可能“有点保守了”,赵大彬表示,截止到2016年1月20号,京东自营葡萄酒部分的销售额已经达到一个亿,“一月份是去年(同比)的四倍”。

 

自营和平台

尽管自营部分发展迅速,赵大彬认为京东自营业务和平台(其他进驻商家)“还没有到针锋相对矛盾的状态”。

首先,适应自营和平台两种模式的葡萄酒产品有所不同。“不是所有的品牌都能做自营的。”赵大彬表示,京东自营葡萄酒不仅需要提供“固定的毛利共享”,销售额也必须“跟上脚步”,京东则会对这些品牌的表现进行评估,也会淘汰一些表现不好的品牌。

目前平台的经营规模相比自营“略大一点”。越来越多商家自主进驻京东销售葡萄酒,或由京东招商进驻,“商家的数量决定了我们平台的成长性”,这与京东本身的业务经营模式是同样的,赵大彬表示。

京东葡萄酒的消费受众现阶段主要集中于北京、上海和广东,以上班族人群为主,赵大彬介绍道,京东准备在2016年下半年“深入到农村,渠道要下沉,到三四线城市”。

“目前葡萄酒消费者还处于初级的入门阶段,葡萄酒品牌也非常多。”而京东为数众多的会员中“仅有百分之三到四的人在买葡萄酒”,赵大彬认为,这意味着其中还有很大的开发空间。

 

国产酒vs进口酒

2015年中国葡萄酒进口明显回升,加之中国与澳大利亚签署自由贸易协定,中国本土酿酒商被认为将面临更大的挑战。

目前京东自营部分国产葡萄酒占销售额的30%,进口葡萄酒为70%。赵大彬表示“30%在电商里还算做的比较大的”,他认为天猫,一号店等其他电商平台销售的国产葡萄酒比例更低。而平台部分,国产品牌占比约在15%左右,“主要是进口酒”。在销售数量上,“国产酒比进口酒要稍微多一点点”。

尽管进口葡萄酒势头强劲,国产葡萄酒在三线四线或更小的城市依然拥有极大的消费量,“进口酒还是进不去”赵大彬介绍道,“但对于一二线城市来讲,进口酒越来越接近他们的市场占有率,经常五五分。”

面对这样的市场现状,本土酿酒商正在寻求业务的拓展,张裕集团以及拥有长城品牌的中粮集团均已投入进口葡萄酒业务。

尽管如此,“在京东葡萄酒定期发布的排名里,张裕和长城都能进葡萄酒品牌销售排名的前三位,国产这两家占国产葡萄酒总额的90%以上。”赵大彬表示。

 

最畅销的葡萄酒价位

在主要进口葡萄酒来源国中,在京东的销售排名从高到低为法国,澳大利亚,智利,西班牙,意大利和美国,赵大彬介绍道,销售量最高的是“50元以下”和“50元到100元”两个价位段。

50元以下的葡萄酒以西班牙日常餐酒为主。50元到100元的价位可见拉菲罗斯柴尔德集团(DBR)旗下的部分产品、澳大利亚Penfolds洛神山庄(Penfolds Rawsons Retreat)、黄尾袋鼠(Yellow Tail)以及智利甘露集团的红魔鬼(Casillero del Diablo)等品牌。

赵大彬表示,自营葡萄酒产品中,100元到200元之间的葡萄酒销售提升明显。“我们做直采,既是进口商,又是面对消费者的零售商,我们加利润不多,这价位段本身也是整个市场的重点需求范围内的。”

200元到500元是京东在精品葡萄酒(Fine Wines)上重点发展的价位。赵大彬认为,2015年以及2016年春节的销售显示了这个价位的潜力。“所有电商不可能只卖入门级的低端产品,未来需求都要往上拓展。”

 

反三公与经济发展放缓的影响

和一些传统高端酒商不同,反“三公”政策“对我们没有一点负面影响,反倒对我们有促进作用。”赵大彬表示。

“三公限制主要限制的是一些中高端价位的产品,对于我们京东来讲,我们是一个零售商,目标人群是大众消费者,市场定位正好错开。而且因为中高端产品泡沫基本被打掉了,价格回归理性。越来越多的人追求性价比,其实对我们有很好的促进作用。整个行业虽然增长受挫,可我们京东葡萄酒业务从2014到2015增长了三倍。”

 

筛选供货商

京东葡萄酒业务已开展五年,赵大彬认为目前面临的最大问题是上游供货商跟不上其快速的增长。供货商“没有那么好的前瞻性”,在供应酒的种类、库存数量等方面“不一定跟得上”。

面对这一挑战,2016年京东准备对目前的1300个SKU(最小存货单位)细分到产区进行评估,“优中选优,再精简品牌,最后是精简供货商”。但是业务调整并不会影响增长速度,赵大彬表示,葡萄酒业务“会保持在百分之三百到四百的增长速度”。

 

2016年市场趋势

赵大彬认为,2016年中国葡萄酒市场整体发展“速度不会是爆发”,“消费者数量还是少,现在还是要鼓励消费者去喝酒,同时尽可能控制各环节的成本,为消费者提供实在的价格。”

(采访和撰文:陆江Maxime)

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