Fine Wine 酒价的波动回归

 Fine Wine酒价的波动回归

陆江(Maxime LU)/万欧兰葡萄酒俱乐部

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Fine Wine酒价的波动回归

2008年金融危机,全球高端葡萄酒行情开始见顶,继而回落,代表高端葡萄酒交易的风向标-英国伦敦国际葡萄酒交易所的Liv-ex 100指数,从顶点的8月到年末下跌了约22%。不过随着中国大陆市场对法国波尔多高端葡萄酒的兴趣渐热,以及高端葡萄酒的抗跌性,2009年年初,Liv-ex 100指数即成功探底,行情开始复苏,并持续缓慢上升。尽管尚在金融危机的阴霾下,2009年指数还是取得了15.74%的涨幅。

在进入2010年,随着在美最大的波尔多顶级酒进口商,帝亚吉奥Diageo美国分支Chateau & Estate Wines宣布退出美国的波尔多酒市场,并为此抛售巨量波尔多列级酒, 曾一度引起波尔多酒庄们担忧,不过颇有戏剧性的是,在中国买家接棒后,似乎没有引起多少波澜,反而加速上升。Liv-ex 100指数在2010年度增长了28.8%,尤其以拉菲为首的中国市场焦点品种们,更是以平均超过50%的年涨幅让世界酒界感受到了中国资本和中国需求的强大力量。

这次飙涨,和其它奢侈品一样,也得益于中国政府的刺激经济政策。为了避免金融危机导致的经济衰退,中国投入巨量资金在基础建设方面,带动经济的同时也不可避免带来了流动性过剩。人民币汇率的坚挺,也为中国的富人们带来强大的购物欲。当然中国国内近年来葡萄酒快速风靡,也为高端葡萄酒价格的暴涨起了推波助澜的作用。甚至由于葡萄酒投资的相对安全性,和葡萄酒承载的品味属性,还吸引了不少投机和投资资本的进入。一些品种被疯狂追捧,甚至不乏鸡犬升天型的品种。如著名的小拉菲,因为和热点酒拉菲酒庄的关系,平均价格从2006年的数百元涨到了2010年末的四、五千元左右。这一年也是高端波尔多葡萄酒投资获利丰厚的一年,尤其是持有拉菲的投资客,某些年份甚至有超过80%的涨幅。

很快进入2011年,高端酒(Fine wines)还在继续上涨,不过热点开始分散。随着拉菲酒庄的整体价格已涨到一个高位(万元级),同时市场里拉菲假酒泛滥;另一方面顶级葡萄酒消费者的对葡萄酒认知的提升;还有2011年为了预防通胀,中国政府执行紧缩的金融政策;综合各方影响因素,市场热点逐渐从拉菲的一家独大,向其它一等庄和一些二等庄实力的酒庄扩散,涨幅也相对减缓。

3月,顶级酒们整体开始进入滞涨横盘行情,6月Liv-ex 100指数到达顶点为364.69点,国际市场的顶级酒整体交易价格开始进入滑落和加速下跌阶段。10月初香港的Fine Wines拍卖会上,首次出现流标现象,其中不乏拉菲酒庄的一些上等年份。而到了12月Liv-ex 100指数已跌至286.33点,与六月顶点相比跌去将近21.5%,堪比2008年的金融危机时期的跌幅。其中除需求萎缩带来的下降动力外,还有前期介入资本的恐慌性抛盘。

2012是葡萄酒投资的转机或是迷雾

进入2012年,经过6个月的下跌,波尔多顶级一等庄们的价格终于在1月企稳,Liv-ex 100指数也在1月有微幅反弹,收报290.30点,月涨幅达到1.4%。根据英国伦敦国际葡萄酒交易所1月的报告,市场热点明显扩散,尤其是罗曼尼康帝(DRC)和Comte Vogue为代表的法国布根地产区品种,已占交易总额的7%;而占主导的法国波尔多产区品种的交易比重略有下降,为87%;意大利和法国罗纳河谷产区的品种已占到5%。

这时候是否可以认定2012年法国波尔多高端酒价格已经企稳,并具有较好的投资价值?

其实还不尽然,首先从交易比例来说,波尔多产区高端酒在市场的需求量相对还是最大。尤其中国大陆市场,年末春节前的送礼和宴请刚性需求依旧很大,而拉菲为代表的波尔多高端葡萄酒还是能得到很强的品牌认同。所以年末春节中国大陆强大的集中需求,有可能带来波尔多产区高端酒价格的短期企稳。

其次经济环境的因素也不容乐观,国际上欧美经济在金融危机后还没完全恢复,再加上最新的欧债危机引发的购买力急剧下降,都无法对波尔多产区为代表的高端酒有强大的提振作用,相反还有负面的效果;而近几年能影响高端酒价格的中国大陆市场来说,从各方获得的信息,2012年依旧是偏紧的财政政策,今年的需求,有很大可能会同去年类似。

还有前面已经提到过的高端酒需求热点分散,和对价格合理性的关注。近年来,媒体和各类相关产业资源,加大力度推动葡萄酒文化的快速普及,使越来越多的消费者在选酒消费上趋于理性。就像2011年12月,著名的拍卖公司Spectrum Wine Auctions的拍卖师Richard Brierley 在Decanter杂志采访时所说,“中国市场比美国市场成熟更快”,“上世纪八九十年代,美国高端酒市场也曾上演过中国近年来的情形,不过中国市场成熟更快”,他在拍卖中发现中国买家在出价和拍品选择上现在已经相当成熟和理性。

当然投资葡萄酒还需要考虑相应的机会成本。所以综合以上各方面的考量,对于以法国波尔多高端酒为代表的投资级葡萄酒,现在还不能做价格止跌企稳的判断,同时尚不建议立刻进行投资买入。

建议先观望2~3个月的后续走势,同时特别关注今年上半年2011年份波尔多投资级葡萄酒期酒的评分情况和各酒庄发布的价格水准。

期酒的机会

除现货投资外,期酒是相对可行的葡萄酒投资手段。提到期酒,需要介绍一下与中国大陆买家有关的波尔多2008年期酒的市场情况。

2009年,是中国大陆买家公开成规模的介入波尔多期酒投资的第一年。这一年由于高端酒庄对2008年爆发的金融危机的恐慌性担忧,和对2008年份的低估,以及2007年份期酒高开低走的压力,普遍将2008年份的期酒低价开盘。可随着罗伯特派克(Robert Parker)对波尔多2008期酒的较高打分的发布,以及2010年市场的火爆,以拉菲为代表的投资级葡萄酒的2008期酒价格,进入一个拉升的通道,使众多大陆买家获利颇丰,从而进一步刺激了国人对葡萄酒期酒投资的兴趣。

可紧接着的2009年份和2010年份的波尔多投资级期酒,由于市场的火爆,以及上佳的品质,波尔多顶级酒庄大部分以高昂的期酒价格开盘,并采用销控的方式,使期酒价一路飙升,购买这两个年份的期酒投资人大部分损失惨重,其中包括不少大陆买家。甚至还有因为配额,被迫买下,无法出手的酒商,因为当酒庄开始分配期酒时,葡萄酒商因害怕失去下一年的配额资格,只好买下,从而陷入大量库存挤占资金的状况。

今年要发布的2011年份期酒,备受关注。2011年份在品质上,被BBR葡萄酒总监Alun Griffiths认为与2008年份类似,只属于一般的好年份。而且整个投资级葡萄酒行情也走势疲软,买家和酒商们怨声载道。像波尔多最大的酒商之一Diva的Jean Pierre Rousseau 提到,如果期酒定价再不明智点的话,期酒活动将不会再有人支持。其实酒庄也意识到这一点,像拉菲酒庄的总经理Christophe Salin也通过英国Decanter杂志呼吁波尔多酒庄们把期酒价格降下来。

4月初的2011年份期酒桶边品试后,按惯例,酒界的权威酒评人或是组织将陆续发布各家酒庄的2011年份期酒评分。尤其是罗伯特派克的打分最为瞩目。建议留意列表中的五大酒庄的打分情况,同时关注后续发布的期酒价格。具体购买决策,要根据期酒价格,结合Liv-ex100走向,以及2008年份市场现货价再来综合判断。(以上文字完成于2012年2月)

 

最新更新(New Updated): 

以近10个年份波尔多一级庄日常交易价格编制的Liv-Ex 50指数,是风向标。今年1月初步探底,横盘波动;2月下旬,因罗伯特帕克(RP)给09年份波尔多酒19个满分,强劲刺激整体酒价上扬,直到3月5日再次见顶回落下行;2011年份期酒,拉菲为首酒庄先行公布价格偏高,没带来反弹。罗伯特帕克的2011期酒打分刚出,拉菲仅为90~93分,五大中最逊的,其他一等庄得分还好,等待他们出期酒价了。

 

罗伯特帕克Robert Parker对2009年份期酒打分

很高,不少98~100. 2009年份也许又是个高价年.  等待各家发布价格. 最近看到的一些酒庄已出价格,不过重头列级名庄还不太有公布.

Parker 给2009年份期酒分数!

lafite 98-100

The 2009 Lafite Rothschild is a candidate for “wine of the vintage.” Although the 2003 was powerful (12.9% alcohol), the 2009 came in at 13.4% alcohol. It is a blend of 82.5% Cabernet Sauvignon, 17% Merlot, and the rest Petit Verdot. Only 45% of the crop went into the grand vin, which may be the most concentrated Lafite I have ever tasted. There is not a hard edge to be found in this inky/purple-colored wine displaying notes of charcoal, incense, black currants, and licorice. In the mouth, it represents a liqueur of black fruits offered in a remarkably full-bodied, incredibly elegant, lush style. Expansive, savory, staggeringly concentrated, and voluptuous as well as wonderfully precise with a hint of minerality, this sensational wine’s technical numbers are off the charts. Is this a replay of the 1959? Although it will be surprisingly approachable in its youth, this is a 50-100-year wine. (Tasted once.)

latour 98-100

The 2009 Latour has off the charts concentration in addition to the highest level of tannin ever measured at the estate. The final blend was somewhat unusual in that it consists of 91.3% Cabernet Sauvignon and 8.7% Merlot, and clocked in at 13.7% alcohol (even higher than the 2003). Possibly a 100-year wine, it boasts an inky/black/purple color as well as an extraordinary perfume of super-intense blue and black fruits, graphite, and a liqueur of rocks-like minerality. Enormously full-bodied yet at the same time incredibly fresh, vibrant, and precise, it coats the mouth, and builds incrementally to skyscraper-like texture, and a whopping finish that lasts over a minute. This remarkable wine reveals a certain accessibility already, yet one senses that it will be even richer, more nuanced, and fuller by the time it is bottled in mid-2011. A monumental wine from a monumental vintage in the Medoc, this is our children’s children’s children’s elixir. (Tasted once.)

There is no doubting that Director Frederic Engerer and owner Francois Pinault are thrilled with what they have accomplished at Latour. These three wines are hugely different in price, but all are extraordinary.

margaux 98-100

Thirty-five percent of the crop went into the 2009 Chateau Margaux, composed of 87% Cabernet Sauvignon, 9% Merlot, and the rest Petit Verdot and Cabernet Franc. The alcohol level of 13.3% is high, but not excessively so. A wine such as this is like the quintessence of terroir. A super, uber-concentrated perfume of creme de cassis and flowers cascades across the palate with a lightness of being despite massive concentration, a sumptuous personality, and an unctuous texture. I have never tasted a Chateau Margaux quite like this. It should be relatively drinkable at an early age, yet will last for 50-100 years. Oh my! (Tasted once.)

Paul Pontallier told me they had never had such levels of concentration and tannin as they did in 2009, exceeding anything they ever produced since the Mentzelopoulos family purchased this property in 1978. Pontallier believes 1996 is the closest stylistically, but 2009 is significantly more concentrated than that vintage. I do not disagree because tasting the second wine, Pavillon Rouge du Chateau Margaux, demonstrates that the 2009 is far superior to almost every Chateau Margaux made in the fifties, sixties, and seventies, except for the 1961 and 1953.

mouton 96-98+

This is the most backward and unevolved of all the Left Bank (Medoc) first-growths. In 10-20 years, the 2009 Mouton Rothschild should rank alongside the greatest vintages of the last three decades (1986 and 1982). Yields were a small 30 hectoliters per hectare, the final blend is 88% Cabernet Sauvignon and 12% Merlot, and the finished alcohol is 13.2% (not particularly high in this vintage). The pH is 3.81, and the index of tannins, the highest ever measured, a whopping 20% higher than the next highest vintage. The tannins, while present, are silky and well-integrated, one of the hallmarks of the 2009 vintage. An inky/purple color is accompanied by classic aromas of creme de cassis, violets, and hints of graphite and background oak. The overwhelming impression is one of layer upon layer of fruit, full-bodied opulence, and good structure. It tastes as if it were 2-3 months old rather than a post-malolactic, fully assembled barrel sample … it’s that young, but so incredibly promising. A 50- to 100-year wine? Probably. (Tasted once.)

haut brion 98-100

There are 10,500 cases of the 2009 Haut-Brion, from a blend of 46% Merlot, 40% Cabernet Sauvignon, and 14% Cabernet Franc. For technicians, the highest ever natural alcohol, 14.3%, was achieved, with a pH of 3.9, which is about the same as the 1989 and 1990, as well as 1959. This is the kind of wine to send chills even up my spine, and I have been tasting here for nearly 30 years. An extraordinary nose of plum, blueberry, raspberry, crushed rock, and that intriguing floral as well as unsmoked cigar tobacco note (a classic sign of this terroir) is followed by a wine of creamy unctuosity reminiscent of 1989, but there is a freshness, vibrancy and precision that is historic and possibly unprecedented. Some graphite emerges as the wine sits in the glass, but the wine is very thick while at the same time precise and elegant. This is the quintessential expression of one of the greatest wine terroirs of the world. To reiterate, the good news is that there are going to be 10,500 cases of Haut-Brion in 2009, which is about 1,500 more cases than the 9,000 produced in 2005. This wine will probably need 7-8 years of cellaring when released and evolve as well as the 1959 has (which is still a perfect wine today), so we’re realistically talking 50-75 years when stored in a cool cellar. (Tasted once.)

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montrose 96-100*

1989 and 1990 deja vu all over again? If you think the 2003 Montrose (which merited 100 points) was powerful (13.2% alcohol), keep in mind that the 2009 Montrose came in at 13.7% alcohol. There is no sense of hotness, only extraordinary transparency and precision, allied to massive fruit intensity. A blend of 65% Cabernet Sauvignon, 29% Merlot, and the rest Cabernet Franc and Petit Verdot, this super-concentrated claret possesses a style reminiscent of the sumptuous 1990 combined with the structure of the 1989. The color is an opaque purple, the pH is a relatively normal 3.7, and the finish is endless. The flavor profile bursts with black currant, blackberry, and boysenberry fruit intertwined with hints of spring flowers and crushed rocks. Huge body, sweet tannin, and wonderful freshness make for one of the all-time great wines ever produced at Montrose. I hope to be drinking this wine with great pleasure before the Man comes for me. Kudos to Jean-Bernard Delmas. (Tasted two times.)

L’Evangile 96-100*

The prodigious 2009 l’Evangile may be the greatest wine made at this estate during my 30+ years of tasting Bordeaux. Yields were 39 hectoliters per hectare, and the harvest was relatively long, with everything being picked at perfect maturity between September 11 and October 7. The estate is doing malolactic in barrel (a la Burgundy), and the final blend (95% Merlot and 5% Cabernet Franc) achieved 14.5% natural alcohol. Amazingly, this cuvee is aged in 100% new oak barrels, yet no oak is present in the aromas or flavors. Readers should think of it as a better, richer, fuller, more alcoholic version of the 1982 l’Evangile. Dense, full-bodied, and opaque purple-hued, it boasts an extraordinary bouquet of spring flowers, blueberries, blackberries, and boysenberries. A blue and black mountain fruit character suggests coolness, but an intensity and voluptuous texture present the paradox of 2009. The wine has all the characteristics of a hot vintage in terms of power, texture, and richness as well as elements of a cool vintage in its precision, elegance, freshness, and vibrancy. Make no mistake about it, this is an enormous wine that is incredible to taste. Frankly, I could have drunk the entire barrel sample if it hadn’t been my first appointment of the day (at 8:15 a.m.)! This wine should drink well for 30-40 years. Bravo! (Tasted once.)

Leoville las cases 96-100

The 2009 is one of the greatest Leoville Las Cases I have ever tasted, which is saying something given the many compelling wines that have been made at this estate. A final blend of 76% Cabernet Sauvignon, 15% Merlot, and 9% Cabernet Franc has resulted in a wine that appears to be a hypothetical blend of the 1982, 1986, and 1996. Its 13.8% alcohol is perhaps the only thing that sets it apart from those vintages, which had nearly a full percentage point less. The high alcohol is barely noticeable in this 2009, which boasts an inky/purple color, monumental concentration, and great clarity and purity of creme de cassis, black cherry, spice box, graphite, and wet rock characteristics. Extremely full-bodied with a boatload of sweet tannin nearly concealed by the wine-s power, glycerin, and awesome fruit concentration, this intense effort never tastes heavy or tiring. This remarkable St.-Julien should be accessible in 3-4 years, and will evolve for 40-50. (Tasted once.)

la mission haut brion 98-100

La Mission Haut-Brion has made so many great wines over the last 100 years, it would be stupid to say the 2009 somehow exceeds this estate-s great classics, such as 1929, 1945, 1949, 1953, 1955, 1959, 1961, 1982, 1989, 1990, 1998, 2000, or 2005. Certainly it will take its place in the pantheon of all the great La Mission Haut-Brions ever made. There are 6,000 cases of it, made from a blend of 47% Cabernet Sauvignon, 47% Merlot, and 6% Cabernet Franc. The natural alcohol hit 14.7%, which far exceeds the perfect wines of 1982, 1989 and 1990. Opaque purple in color, with an extraordinary nose of blueberry liqueur intermixed with camphor, charcoal, hints of burning embers and truffles, and loads of black berry and black currant fruit, the wine has sublime concentration and purity, a finish that goes well past 60 seconds, and not a hard edge to be found in this sumptuous, almost over-the-top, full-bodied wine of enormous power and massive density and richness. An immortal effort, it should drink well for 50-100 years! (Tasted once.)

Harvest started around September 9 at La Mission Haut-Brion, and finished almost a month later, on October 6. To get an idea of just how extraordinary all the wines from the Dillon family are in 2009, just consider how phenomenal the second wines are.

cos d’Estournel 98-100*

The 2009 Cos d’Estournel is one of the greatest young wines I have ever tasted … in the world! An extraordinary effort I tasted on two separate occasions, this blend of 65% Cabernet Sauvignon and the rest primarily Merlot with a dollop of Cabernet Franc has a whopping 14.5% alcohol, but a remarkably normal pH of 3.69. Kudos to Jean-Guillaume Prats and owner Michel Reybier for this amazing wine made from yields of 33 hectoliters per hectare. It will be a legendary claret that should last for 50-60 years. A black/purple color is accompanied by aromas of graphite, ink, creme de cassis, blackberries, cedar, and incense. Full-bodied and unctuously textured, with an ethereal personality, tons of nuances, and a burgeoning complexity, it is an enormously well-endowed, fresh, perfectly balanced tour de force in winemaking. As mentioned above, it should drink well for 50-60 years. This wine possesses this vintage’s classic characteristics of enormous power, massive fruit, and extraordinary freshness and precision – largely unprecedented, particularly for Cabernet-based wines in the Medoc. (Tasted two times.)

Trotanoy 97-100*

I don’t know what the 1961 Trotanoy tasted like in its youth, but the 2009 unquestionably surpasses the 1982 (which was the finest effort since the 1961) and eclipses anything made since. By far the greatest Trotanoy of my professional career, the 2009 boasts a dense plum/purple color as well as a meaty, earthy nose buttressed by enormous quantities of black fruits, cherries, and spice. Abundant glycerin, viscosity, purity, and elegance are all part of this massive, exuberant, powerful Trotanoy. One of the most prodigious wines of the vintage, it should come into its own in 8-10 years, and last 30-40 years thereafter.  (Tasted once.)

Duhart-Milon-Rothschild 94-96*

2009 may turn out to be among the greatest vintages ever in the Medoc. The 2009 appears to be the finest Duhart Milon yet made. The Rothschild family has invested heavily in this estate over the last 20 years in order to upgrade the quality, and their investments have certainly paid off handsomely. A blend of 63% Cabernet Sauvignon and 37% Merlot, the 2009’s opaque purple color is followed by an extraordinary perfume of creme de cassis, violets, graphite, and subtle wood. This full-bodied, intense, voluptuously textured, pure, seductive wine seems more open-knit and opulent than the more structured Carruades de Lafite. Nevertheless, the Duhart requires 3-5 years of cellaring, and should drink well for 30+ years. Bravo! (Tasted once.)

Haut Bailly 96-98+*
The greatest Haut-Bailly ever made? One can’t speak enough of the job Veronique Sanders has done in 2009, allied with the owner, the American banker Robert Wilmers, who has given her carte blanche authority. Tiny yields have resulted in the most concentrated Haut-Bailly I have ever tasted. Eclipsing even the 2005, the 2009 (a blend of 60% Cabernet Sauvignon, 37% Merlot, and 3% Cabernet Franc) possesses 13.9% natural alcohol. Dense purple to the rim, it exhibits a precise, nuanced nose of mulberries, black cherries, black currants, graphite, and a singular floral component. A wine of profound intensity and full-bodied power, yet stunningly elegant, and never heavy or massive, it builds incrementally on the palate, and the finish lasts over 45 seconds. Remarkably, there is not a hard edge to be found in this beauty. The Cabernet Sauvignon and Cabernet Franc were harvested between October 7 and 14, which explains their phenolic maturity. The wine’s extraordinary freshness, elegance, and precision are nearly surreal. This tour de force should age brilliantly for 40+ years. (Tasted two times.)

*号代表PARKER品酒生涯中此酒庄喝过最好的年份。

罗伯特帕克(RP)打分和葡萄酒魅力

罗伯特帕克(RP)打分和葡萄酒魅力
-陆江/万欧兰葡萄酒俱乐部

Robert parker 罗伯特 派克

Robert parker 罗伯特 派克

聊RP,一点感想,分享一下。

罗伯特帕克(RP)的记忆力嗅觉味觉超群,以及律师特有的缜密(有时感觉RP是部比较标准化的葡萄酒品测打分机器),而且机遇、坚持和较好的运作。所以只有他才有这般影响力。

葡萄酒打分本来就不能很量化,每个人都会有自己相对侧重的权重,而且敏感度也不同。只不过市场需要一个相对标准的葡萄酒选择的依据,RP的体系有RP认为合适的理由,并不一定完美,不过给消费者带来方便,而且市场也接受了这种权威,这也是为什么RP在酒商眼里有那么大的影响力。

不过带来的负面影响,也是会有,如酒的同质化,电影《MONDOVINO》里就有相关描述。当然也有不少酒庄已意识到这一点。一些酒庄不再过多受Michel Rolland的影响,在逐渐恢复自己的风格和多样性。

标准化和多样性不断在妥协和融合,不管怎样,打分见仁见智。分数有一定参考性但不必太过迷信。

就我个人来说,一款健康的酒,它的个性化、愉悦感和葡萄酒背后的历史文化才是我认为的葡萄酒最大魅力所在。

对于爱好者,轻松享受美酒更有意义,具体记录打分,只要自己能理解和记录差别就行。到了一定程度,也会根据自己的情况和经验不断更新修改。具体公正性达到的程度,自然会有市场来反应。